Prices not falling this fall

The September real estate statistics were released this week and paint a more stable picture in Calgary.

While prices are still down from a year ago (1.7% for detached homes, 3% for apartments), monthly benchmark prices have risen and fallen (yes, I said risen!) by tiny amounts throughout the year, rather than the consistent monthly declines we were seeing for the past few years.

To show you what I mean, these were the benchmark prices for detached homes for the past five months:

  • May 487,900
  • June 488,900
  • July 488,400
  • August 488,400
  • September 488,700

The number of months of supply has fluctuated between 3.3 and 4.4 from March to September of this year. A balanced market is about 3 or 4 months of supply – lower than 3 is a seller’s market and higher than 4 is a buyer’s market.

The apartment sector has still been much more oversupplied, with the months of supply fluctuating between 5.3 and 7.9 during the same period.

The number of new listings hitting the market has been dropping in the third quarter of this year, which is quite normal and has helped to balance out the supply ratio. As we move toward the end of the year, some sellers choose to take their listings off the market and wait for spring rather than continue trying to sell now.

It’s certainly not all rosy and I will say that 30-50% of houses that I’m looking at with buyers these days are listed below what the current owners paid. A lot of homeowners are still losing money when their situation changes and they have to sell.

Detached homes are still about 7% below their 2014 peak and apartments are a whopping 17% below their 2014 peak.

But prices have stabilized and stable pricing generally precedes price increases.

I know I speak for many homeowners when I say that I certainly hope for brighter times ahead for our city.

When families can at least break even on their home, it allows them more choices in life – choices to upsize or downsize depending on their life situation, choices to keep or sell a rental property that they own, choices to refinance their home to help cover an unexpected life expense.

As always, market conditions fluctuate from community to community and we are happy to provide detailed statistics or recent sales from your own community. Whether you are thinking of selling or just curious where your home stands, drop us a line.

-Amie